Bet LA Tech (+23) to Beat the Spread at Miss State
One thing I can absolutely guarantee about the game between Louisiana Tech and Mississippi State on November 03, 2018, is that the Bulldogs are as safe a bet as I’ve seen all year.
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs that is to say. Louisiana Tech has been an underrated football team all year. The thought of picking against them as a 23-point underdog to a one-dimensional football team whose offense has scored 7 or fewer points in three of it’s last five games is difficult to fathom.
Vegas has been artificially high on Mississippi State at times this season, most recently the weekend before last against LSU, when the line broke sharply toward MSU as kickoff approached. LSU easily beat the spread with a dominating 19-3 victory that could have been much worse had LSU not played for field goals knowing State was unable to score.
Louisiana Tech on the other hand has been very good all season long, with only losses to #3 (CFP), and #4 (AP) LSU — a game that was 24-21 in the third quarter before LSU’s depth started to overwhelm their neighbor from Ruston. Their only other loss was to a good UAB team. The LA Tech Bulldogs have a quality win against North Texas, and played LSU tougher than the Bulldogs from Starkville did.
The bottom line is I see the LTU offense scoring at least 3 times, likely for at least 17 points, more likely 20-24. J’Mar Smith isn’t a bad quarterback and that team has capable playmakers at WR. Mississippi State on the other hand has been completely and totally unable to pass the ball more often than not this season. While Bulldog QB Nick Fitzgerald did perform better against Texas A&M, Danny Etling also nearly threw for close to 400 yards against the Aggies in last season’s finale’ while averaging half that for the season going in.
I just don’t trust Mississippi State to score the 42 or so points I think they’ll need to cover a 23 point point spread against a Louisiana Tech team whose offensive strength is the passing game, which MSU’s legitimately stout defense thrives by taking away the run first. Well, they can’t take away what isn’t there to begin with, and LA Tech has managed to go 6-1 against everyone not named LSU without much of a running game to speak of. They scored 21 on LSU, which is similar to MSU’s defense in terms of talent, only LSU’s D matches up better against LTU than State’s does since the Tigers’ strength is in its secondary.
If you’re going to be betting on college football November 03, forget LSU-Bama. Take the easy money and bet Louisiana Tech +23. They may not score 23, but they’ll score enough to beat that irrationally large point spread. MSU’s offense isn’t very good (7 or fewer points in 3 or last 5 games), and LTU’s offense is capable of moving the ball and scoring some points against MSU’s dominant defense.
*** Peter’s Pick ***
Mississippi State 27, Louisiana Tech 16
This post will be updated periodically as new odds are released, particularly the O/U (Over/Under, i.e. “point total”).
In the very near future, everyone reading this (and everyone else) will be able to make their/your own free football picks at WePick.com and we’ll do all the work keeping up with the stats. Those who consistently pick at a high rate of success will be featured on the home page and will have the opportunity to make money selling picks to bettors seeking winning advice.
Back in early May I wrote an in-depth article and filmed four videos explaining how to most effectively chum the water so as to catch as many catfish as possible while fishing. This article is the sequel to those chumming efforts wherein we review the results.
Between the How to Chum for Catfish article and videos and a more recent guide on fishing for catfish in general, it is the opinion of this author that anyone who has read the two articles and watched the videos will have adequate knowledge after doing so to not just catch catfish, but totally slay them (slay is slang for ‘catch a lot more’ when used in this context).
To recap, the articles and videos previously referenced are linked to (and in the case of the videos embedded) below.
Videos (If video 2 doesn’t start immediately after video 1 finishes, just manually click it. Same goes for videos 3 and 4):
The following are a series of photographs of me (Peter) holding fish he caught right there at my chumming spot (the water behind my house) in the time since the original article. These are to establish credibility that the system works. One thing to keep in mind is that I failed to land the four largest fish he got on the line for various reasons ranging from damaged fishing line to a poorly tied knot to trying to reel a 10+ pound fish up to the top of a balcony some 12-14 feet above the water using medium-light action fishing gear.
In all, I have caught about 150-200 catfish since the debut of the original article. Obviously, I haven’t photographed every catch, but the photos taken should be sufficient to establish that my (Peter Egan’s) chumming methods work.
For a while I was relocating them from the bayou/river to a drainage pond across the street from his house, but multiple floods have rendered those efforts moot.
Without further ado, here are the photos:
The Good Times – Catfish Everywhere!
First, all of the fish seen in the above photos were relatively unharmed and were released successfully. None had debilitating injuries at the time they were released.
Moreover, as you can tell from the multitude of shirts I’m wearing, these photos came from a number of fishing outings, all of which combined netted over 150 fish, perhaps closing in on 200. While I didn’t catch any massive fish during this time period, I did set the hook into more than one, but was unable to land any of them. The fact that I use pliers to flatten the barbs on my hooks (unless I intend to keep the fish I catch, which is rare) doesn’t help. I release 95%-98% of what I catch, so it’s a rare occurrence when I fish with a hook that actually has a barb to prevent the fish from spitting out the hook.
The two largest fish seen didn’t even take the bait. They were an approximately 4-foot catfish in the 25-30 pound range and another one closer to 5 feet in total length with an estimated weight of over 50 pounds.
The bottom line though is that all of these fish were seen or caught right off of my back porch, and the reason I’m able to catch fish sitting on a chair on my own balcony outside the room overhanging the boat slip, is because my chumming methods are effective. Without chum, on average I might get 0.5-to-1 fish per outing. I can catch as many as I want, literally (well, almost literally).
Trouble on the Horizon
An astute reader might have discerned that I am a fan of all things LSU, including but not limited to the school’s football program. After an agonizing week following their loss to Troy, I found my chum attracting a new species altogether.
I had been seeing Alligator Gar and Spotted Gar fairly regularly, however it wasn’t until the LSU Tigers were en route to the Swamp to take on the Florida Gators that I saw an actual alligator in the water behind my house.
Tropical Storm Nate must have relocated it, but it was about 9-10 feet in length, and decided to hang out where I chum, presumably in hopes of getting itself one of those catfish that used to practically reside there.
I went fishing anyway, and the gator took my bait. I wrestled with it for about 20 minutes before I realized that I was alone and would need someone to film me landing the gator if indeed I was able to do so. I had to tighten the drag to get the camera ready so I could film myself reeling in an alligator large enough to eat me just in case this was a battle in which I would emerge victorious.
When I went to grab the camera to record the landing, I had to temporarily tighten my drag to look for the camera and get it set up, and it was at that point that the gator made its strongest charge of the fight, breaking my 20-pound test Power Pro line.
The fact that the line didn’t break and wasn’t cut by the animal’s teeth is a testament to the quality of the product. While it can be hard to achieve a knot that holds, once you get one the chances are not much below the surface of the water is going to break your line, especially if you are astute at working the drag (the tension on the reel and line that determines how much pull force must be applied for the fishing line to come off the reel so as to prevent the line breaking).
The next day, a smaller gator showed up and has yet to leave. This one is 5-6 feet in length. I have yet to see any sign of a catfish since the gators showed up. I may have to stop chumming for a while and hope they leave, only to resume once they do in order to get the catfish back. One thing’s for sure, if there are gators in the near vicinity, the catfish will find someplace else to feed.
The remaining photos are of this smaller alligator that as of an hour ago was still hanging out behind my house.
The purpose of these photos and this segment is to disclaim that when you use chum, you may be inviting creatures aside from those you’re hoping to see.
The same principle applies to saltwater chum, for whatever it’s worth. Typically, sharks are the first or among the first species to respond to saltwater chum, regardless of whether you’re fishing for sharks or not. In the same vein, don’t swim in water you’re chumming, regardless of salinity.
As for this gator that just won’t leave, if it doesn’t leave on his own I may try to catch it this weekend and then relocate it a few miles down the river. The other option is to just take the boat out and find somewhere else to fish. The latter option removes the comforts of home from the fishing equation.
Look for another YouTube video soon, and as always, if you find any of this useful, please like, share and subscribe to these posts and especially the videos.
I miss Lesticles. Of course by Lesticles I mean Leslie Edwin Miles (better knoan as “Les Miles“) former head coach of the Louisiana State University football program.
He was fired after 4 games in 2016. He had been head coach at LSU since 2005, and is the most successful coach in program history.
When Nick Saban resigned as coach of the Miami Dolphins, he agreed to become coach at Alabama; one of LSU’s biggest rivals. The winner of the game between these two typically decides the division and who gets to go to Atlanta to play for the SEC Championship.
Saban established one the greatest dynasties in the history of the sport. All of sudden LSU couldn’t beat Bama five years in a row counting the year the two teams split two games (2011 season – LSU beat Bama in Tuscaloosa during a 13-0 regular season, but lost in the national championship in what has come to be known as the “mulligan game.”
I From what I’ve seen so far really dislike the LSU football team’s new attempt at offense. For all the criticisms Les Miles took for his style of play, his offenses were never as futile as the Tigers have been through four games.
The motion at the line of scrimmage has reduced LSU’s average yards per carry by approximately 2/YPC. That differences on 0ffense is that the runs are designed t0 gain 4-5 yards as opposed to the 6 and 7 yards LSU backs have averaged the past two seasons and three of the last four.
Les was done wrong by Joe Alleva, F. King Alexander and the LSU administration.
He legitimately won the Auburn game the day before his firing. Go back and watch the clock on the final drive. The clock didn’t stop on first downs and runs out-of-bounds on e separate occasions. That’s easily 25-30 second left in that game when Etling hit the winning TD pass that was overruled because the 25 seconds remaining showed as “0” on the scoreboard.
If Les gets credit for that win his team legitimately won, he’s 3-1 with the only loss being a nail biter against a team that played in a major bowl and nearly won the Big 10 (SIC) . He probably looses to Bama, but if the offense under Miles could score 11 points they may well have won that game too. They sure as he’ll wouldn’t have lost to Florida.
If Miles is never fired, LSU goes 10-2 or at worst 9-3 (if they lose the bowl) last year, makes the Sugar Bowl and is 4-0 to start this season instead or 3-1. LSU Made a terrible mistake firing Miles.
I could very easily see the 2017 team going 4-8 or 5-7, a feat not accomplished since the ’90’s.
Les’ teams were tough, and could impose their will with ease against teams that didn’t have the talent, size, speed or most importantly physicality.
Les Miles won the SEC West 3 times as coach as LSU. He eon the conference championship twice, and played in two national championship games, winning one (2007 over Ohio State 38-24).
During his 11.33 seasons as LSU’s head coach, there were seven games total in which the Tigers scored a 10 points or less and lost. Ed Orgeron, Miles successor had 3 such games out of his first 11 contests.
LSU fans didn’t appreciate what they has in Les Miles, and are finding out the hard way just how disastrous a decision was made on their behalf by Joe Alleva.